I've been doing some pre-grad school reading now that applications are done. Before getting to the awesome list of LA centric books sourced from parents and family friends, I set myself the task of reading Social Justice and the City, by David Harvey. I'm not finished yet, but I'm up to the second-to-last chapter of the original text (my edition has the 2008 right to the city essay at the back) on urbanism and the city.
On the T tonight, I came across this section: "In a capitalist economy, accumulated surplus value is in large part put to work to create even greater quantities of surplus value. This process does not occur with similar intensity in all sectors or territories of the capitalist economy. Its intensity depends, among other things, on the degree of market penetration in the sector or territory in question." As the chapter is largely on the relationship between cities and surplus value, an idea popped into my head, and I'm hoping/guessing that it is not original, but I'm curious to know what's out there on the topic, so here goes.
"Eds and meds" have been touted as the saviors of rust belt cities. Major hospitals and universities have led turnarounds in Pittsburgh and Cleveland, among others, and are looked to in any number of cities as the sectors that will at least stabilize, if not reverse the end-of-manufacturing decline. My idea/question is: Does the use of eds and meds as urban growth engines actually signal the penetration of health care and academia by the market, meaning that, potentially, much of the rising cost of healthcare and education is due to the institutions being put in place to ensure health care providers and universities are operated as a business/extract additional surplus value, rather than as a doctor's office and a school? In healthcare, examples I can think of would be the biopharmaceutical industry, the patenting (or commodification) of genes and procedures, and the proliferation of shiny new hospital wings and research centers for things. In academia, in addition to the insanity that is textbooks, which economists keep trying to explain away as a incentives problem (the assigners of the books don't pay for them, but that doesn't explain why young economists need new editions every 2 years), there's the idea that schools need to sell themselves with buildings, and study abroad, and all manner of bits of education that you consume rather than, I don't know, grapple with in a good conversation with other smart people.
Second, if that is the case (and I think it is), how does thinking about it that way lead to better solutions? I think that among its key usefulness is that it shifts focus from the bits of the institutions that are still trying to operate like doctor's offices and schools to the bits that are operating like businesses. In other words, if you're looking to cut costs in healthcare, cut profits in biopharm and hospitals by making them less market-based rather than more. This means stop patenting plants and genes and allow the government, not "the market" to set prices for procedures, rather than blaming doctors or patients or emergency rooms. Stop the ballooning administrative positions, building construction, and degrees created to make money university tactics in favor of supporting faculty and student research, and stop trying to create performance measures and standard methods of evaluating the productivity of faculties and departments. None of those ideas are particularly novel, but I don't know that I recognized their importance relative to other strategies that don't specifically target the market penetration problem until I started thinking about surplus value.
That brings me to the last part of the thought, though. I like cities. I prefer cities that don't have multiple sections that could be zombie movie sets (no offense meant, Cincinnati). If I'm against the collection of surplus value from the eds and meds sectors because it puts people I know and love into serious debt and makes others fear that they have outlived their funds and are a burden to their family, am I also then, without knowing it, calling for Pittsburgh and Cleveland and even Cambridge to be less vibrant and enticing places to live?
My current answer is I don't think so. My two favorite quotes from Marx so far in this book are "All history is nothing but a continuous transformation of human nature" and "The productiveness of labor that serves as its [capital's, I think] foundation and starting point, is a gift, not of Nature, but of a history embracing thousands of centuries." We know more than we have ever known about the way the world works (and can/should work), and we can get to a point where the idea that people work to feel fulfilled and there is enough to meet everyone's needs does not make the reader of this blog shake their head at my naivete. We have learned that we like cities, and that people think great big thoughts best in cities, and that while cities may have arisen because they were located at necessary transhipment points and were a place where capitalists could capture value as goods were transported (among other reasons), they are also awesome places to try to cure cancer and teach yoga and have science museums and aquariums and Japanese burritos and kosher gluten-free dim sum and stores devoted entirely to lox. Therefore, even in a world where workers were not as alienated from the surplus they produced, surplus would likely still be used by many to support the cities we have come to love.
I think.
What do you think?
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Monday, April 15, 2013
Regulation of hazardous material by rail
So I learned something new today, and I thought I'd share it with you all.
As far as I can tell, there is no government regulation of hazardous material routing by rail.*
Why is this important? Let me give an example, and the reason I went fishing for this information.
Global Partners, an oil and gas company with a refinery in Revere and an transhipment point in Albany, among others, mixes ethanol and gas at the Revere refinery. Currently, it receives ethanol inputs by barge from Motiva in the Port of Providence, which receives ethanol both by barge and rail from Global's Albany facility. Rail shipments meander through Connecticut and Massachusetts before heading into Providence.** Both Albany and Providence have made significant investments in their ports in recent years to facilitate this trade. Providence also receives ethanol by barge from international ports.
A couple of years ago, Global proposed a project with PanAm Railways, which owns the spur that directly serves Global's facility, to improve the spur and create a space on their property to store ethanol cars, enabling them to receive ethanol by rail as well as by barge. They would share the costs, PanAm gets new freight service on the northern east-west route it just partnered with Norfolk Southern and MassDOT to improve, Global gets a redundancy in its supply chain, and everyone wins.
Well, no.
Any route to Global's facility passes through the most densely populated areas of Massachusetts, areas which also happen to be rather lacking in the alcohol fire fighting foam that a derailment would necessitate. Perhaps not coincidentally, with the exception of Belmont and West Somerville, nearly every census tract the routes pass through are designated environmental justice areas, with significant concentrations of minority and low-income populations. One route that passes through somewhat fewer EJ areas is instead on a railroad that is not up to the Class 3 standard that the MBTA commuter rail tracks maintain. Speaking of MBTA commuter rail, all potential routes include significant commuter rail traffic.
In other words, PanAm's and Global's sweet deal is a sweet deal only because all risk and payment for risk mitigation falls on someone else. Understandably, the local communities are raising their voices to the agencies they assume should have some say (MassDOT and MassDEP), and even managed to get a bill through the Mass legislature asking for further study.
Mass DOT did a study, and identified many of these concerns. It wasn't perfect (no study is), but it highlighted the EJ populations, noted the lack of foam and poor track conditions, and made a number of recommendations and identified sources of public funds for mitigation.
Yes, public funds. Why? Because MassDOT has zero leverage against the companies, as far as I can tell. MassDEP gets to permit the site, but not the route taken, so it can ensure state of the art storage once the ethanol makes it to Revere, but I don't think it can require that PanAm and Global buy the Revere Fire Department foam trucks or pay to upgrade tracks and improve grade crossings. Sprinkled throughout the federal hazmat transportation regulations (49 CFR 171,172, and 174) is federal preemption of state regulation, specifically forbidding things like prohibiting the transportation of hazmat on certain routes.
Now, such a clause isn't totally crazy, and it's one of the reasons a federalist system has a lot of merit. Without such a clause, at worst, every state and community with political power bans hazmat transportation immediately and relegates it to those areas, often EJ areas, with little political power, and at best, results in disjointed and mismatched networks. It makes sense to have a managed and planned network, where one can assemble resources, assure shortest distances and minimum damages, and prepare contingency plans nationwide.
Such a system (mostly) exists on the highways. Each state designates hazmat routes, free from tunnels and avoiding populated areas where possible, runs them through a public outreach process, and submits them to the federal government, which then reviews and approves. Boston just had a run-in with this following completion of the Big Dig, when the truckers leaving Revere refineries wanted to take surface streets over the Dig and Boston wanted them to go around. The truckers lost that one.
For rail though, there's no such procedure. Even though the MBTA owns nearly all the track within the densely population areas, the contracts they made with the former freight owners long ago gave the former owners exclusive freight rights to the track. While the MBTA and other passenger trains take priority, the MBTA cannot refuse a particular shipment. Therefore, even though Mass DOT reviewed three route alternatives and clearly showed (though did not tell) a clear winner safety-wise, they can't ensure that it is the one selected, nor will any sort of environmental impact statement be conducted.
Perhaps less important but equally intriguing to me, there is also no one looking at the impact this may have (beneficial or not) on Providence. On the one hand, if rail shipments of ethanol there decrease, theoretically there's a safety benefit to residents, and given the meandering route nature, there may be just as many affected residents. On the other, there's also investment that may now go to waste and barge owners in Providence sitting empty.
That second part is all the more reason for the feds to be involved. Mass DOT should be allowed to select an alternative and require that the private companies provide mitigation, but the feds should both a) verify that Mass DOT isn't squashing interstate commerce (setting aside for now the valid question of whether more ethanol is worth squashing) and b) that this more direct route to the customer is not putting more lives at risk both from fire and from an economic and job loss standard.
I yearn for the day when an environmental impact assessment gets to really ask questions like, "What is the net job loss?" "Where are those jobs?" "What are prospects for laid off employees getting rehired?" and so on, as well as "Really, Global? You're betting on ethanol now? Would you still make that bet if you covered rescue costs in the event of an emergency, as well as yearly training costs for fire personnel and track improvements? Don't those barges just suddenly gleam?"
*Rail carriers self assess routes with explosives and poisonous vapors. Assessments are yearly reviews of routes with shipments and alternative routes, and are secret/classified unless specifically requested by certain government officials. Not at all the same thing (49 CFR 172.820).
**If I can make the map work, I will post it. I'm not kidding about the meander. It crosses the Mass border like three times, all to avoid being charged an arm and a leg by Amtrak.
As far as I can tell, there is no government regulation of hazardous material routing by rail.*
Why is this important? Let me give an example, and the reason I went fishing for this information.
Global Partners, an oil and gas company with a refinery in Revere and an transhipment point in Albany, among others, mixes ethanol and gas at the Revere refinery. Currently, it receives ethanol inputs by barge from Motiva in the Port of Providence, which receives ethanol both by barge and rail from Global's Albany facility. Rail shipments meander through Connecticut and Massachusetts before heading into Providence.** Both Albany and Providence have made significant investments in their ports in recent years to facilitate this trade. Providence also receives ethanol by barge from international ports.
A couple of years ago, Global proposed a project with PanAm Railways, which owns the spur that directly serves Global's facility, to improve the spur and create a space on their property to store ethanol cars, enabling them to receive ethanol by rail as well as by barge. They would share the costs, PanAm gets new freight service on the northern east-west route it just partnered with Norfolk Southern and MassDOT to improve, Global gets a redundancy in its supply chain, and everyone wins.
Well, no.
Any route to Global's facility passes through the most densely populated areas of Massachusetts, areas which also happen to be rather lacking in the alcohol fire fighting foam that a derailment would necessitate. Perhaps not coincidentally, with the exception of Belmont and West Somerville, nearly every census tract the routes pass through are designated environmental justice areas, with significant concentrations of minority and low-income populations. One route that passes through somewhat fewer EJ areas is instead on a railroad that is not up to the Class 3 standard that the MBTA commuter rail tracks maintain. Speaking of MBTA commuter rail, all potential routes include significant commuter rail traffic.
In other words, PanAm's and Global's sweet deal is a sweet deal only because all risk and payment for risk mitigation falls on someone else. Understandably, the local communities are raising their voices to the agencies they assume should have some say (MassDOT and MassDEP), and even managed to get a bill through the Mass legislature asking for further study.
Mass DOT did a study, and identified many of these concerns. It wasn't perfect (no study is), but it highlighted the EJ populations, noted the lack of foam and poor track conditions, and made a number of recommendations and identified sources of public funds for mitigation.
Yes, public funds. Why? Because MassDOT has zero leverage against the companies, as far as I can tell. MassDEP gets to permit the site, but not the route taken, so it can ensure state of the art storage once the ethanol makes it to Revere, but I don't think it can require that PanAm and Global buy the Revere Fire Department foam trucks or pay to upgrade tracks and improve grade crossings. Sprinkled throughout the federal hazmat transportation regulations (49 CFR 171,172, and 174) is federal preemption of state regulation, specifically forbidding things like prohibiting the transportation of hazmat on certain routes.
Now, such a clause isn't totally crazy, and it's one of the reasons a federalist system has a lot of merit. Without such a clause, at worst, every state and community with political power bans hazmat transportation immediately and relegates it to those areas, often EJ areas, with little political power, and at best, results in disjointed and mismatched networks. It makes sense to have a managed and planned network, where one can assemble resources, assure shortest distances and minimum damages, and prepare contingency plans nationwide.
Such a system (mostly) exists on the highways. Each state designates hazmat routes, free from tunnels and avoiding populated areas where possible, runs them through a public outreach process, and submits them to the federal government, which then reviews and approves. Boston just had a run-in with this following completion of the Big Dig, when the truckers leaving Revere refineries wanted to take surface streets over the Dig and Boston wanted them to go around. The truckers lost that one.
For rail though, there's no such procedure. Even though the MBTA owns nearly all the track within the densely population areas, the contracts they made with the former freight owners long ago gave the former owners exclusive freight rights to the track. While the MBTA and other passenger trains take priority, the MBTA cannot refuse a particular shipment. Therefore, even though Mass DOT reviewed three route alternatives and clearly showed (though did not tell) a clear winner safety-wise, they can't ensure that it is the one selected, nor will any sort of environmental impact statement be conducted.
Perhaps less important but equally intriguing to me, there is also no one looking at the impact this may have (beneficial or not) on Providence. On the one hand, if rail shipments of ethanol there decrease, theoretically there's a safety benefit to residents, and given the meandering route nature, there may be just as many affected residents. On the other, there's also investment that may now go to waste and barge owners in Providence sitting empty.
That second part is all the more reason for the feds to be involved. Mass DOT should be allowed to select an alternative and require that the private companies provide mitigation, but the feds should both a) verify that Mass DOT isn't squashing interstate commerce (setting aside for now the valid question of whether more ethanol is worth squashing) and b) that this more direct route to the customer is not putting more lives at risk both from fire and from an economic and job loss standard.
I yearn for the day when an environmental impact assessment gets to really ask questions like, "What is the net job loss?" "Where are those jobs?" "What are prospects for laid off employees getting rehired?" and so on, as well as "Really, Global? You're betting on ethanol now? Would you still make that bet if you covered rescue costs in the event of an emergency, as well as yearly training costs for fire personnel and track improvements? Don't those barges just suddenly gleam?"
*Rail carriers self assess routes with explosives and poisonous vapors. Assessments are yearly reviews of routes with shipments and alternative routes, and are secret/classified unless specifically requested by certain government officials. Not at all the same thing (49 CFR 172.820).
**If I can make the map work, I will post it. I'm not kidding about the meander. It crosses the Mass border like three times, all to avoid being charged an arm and a leg by Amtrak.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Thoughts following the Chiefs-Chargers game
So I stayed up late watching the Chiefs beat the Chargers in overtime (an outcome that lost me points in a pick 'em pool but secured my fantasy football team's victory!!) and found myself rooting inexplicably for the Chiefs. Seeking answers, I turned to Wikipedia. I discovered that the lovely metropolis of Kansas City has the 43rd worst WalkScore of the nation's 50 largest cities and is represented by a Democrat minister and a Republican farmer. I figured that most of my friends, would, as usual, find my desire to go learn more about, and possibly visit KC, to be strange and not at all to their taste.
This got me thinking about a book I skimmed in the fabulous Harvard Book Store. I don't recall title or author (will go back and update this with that information later when I go buy it), but the argument was: Americans have now more than ever sorted themselves into communities of like minded individuals...and that's the problem. It takes a common theory of urban economics--given a choice of towns with varied policies, you'll move to the one that best suits your lifestyle (more or less money for schools, more or less money for public transit, etc.)--and explores what happens when you still have to debate federal/state policy with people whose lifestyle choices you not only don't agree with but now don't even have the means to understand. Familiarity may breed contempt, but interacting with others face-to-face generally leads to civil discourse, particularly compared to the internet.
In short, I think its worth spending time in places you may at first find not your style. In long, I'm going to go read that book and get back to you.
This got me thinking about a book I skimmed in the fabulous Harvard Book Store. I don't recall title or author (will go back and update this with that information later when I go buy it), but the argument was: Americans have now more than ever sorted themselves into communities of like minded individuals...and that's the problem. It takes a common theory of urban economics--given a choice of towns with varied policies, you'll move to the one that best suits your lifestyle (more or less money for schools, more or less money for public transit, etc.)--and explores what happens when you still have to debate federal/state policy with people whose lifestyle choices you not only don't agree with but now don't even have the means to understand. Familiarity may breed contempt, but interacting with others face-to-face generally leads to civil discourse, particularly compared to the internet.
In short, I think its worth spending time in places you may at first find not your style. In long, I'm going to go read that book and get back to you.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Land banking and Cincinnati
I just saw this article on the Planetizen website. It's about how Youngstown, OH is handling being a shrinking city, and intriguingly, it mentions that both the city and the university, Youngstown State, are buying houses from willing sellers as part of a land bank, an idea I'd mentioned. While the article's point is that shrinking isn't enough (to which I might add "yet"), I looked into the literature on land banking and sure enough, it's recommended practice for shrinking cities. In the same set of articles, I also got outside confirmation that Cincinnati is indeed shrinking. It lost over a third of its population between 1960 and 2000, and I would bet that percentage will be around the same when the 2010 numbers come out.
Most importantly, it turns out that land banking has been authorized in Ohio since 1976, and that Cincinnati has had a land bank since 1996. It acquires only ~10 properties a year whereas Flint, MI and Cleveland, OH acquire around 1000. In April, former Gov. Ted Strickland signed a bill authorizing land banks in every Ohio county (previously only Cuyahoga County was authorized to land bank on a county level, and Cincinnati's was a municipal enterprise). Expanding to Hamilton County would allow Cincinnati to take advantage of the extra money that could come from taking less-damaged foreclosed properties in the outlying areas and reselling them and using the profits for upkeep and redevelopment. Apparently, though, according to this Master's thesis from the regional planning program at the University of Cincinnati, the Cincinnati Land Bank has even bigger problems to sort out first.
This probably still would not help my grandmother, as condos are not particularly valuable land banking property, and she can still pay her taxes. Still, a new and improved Hamilton County Land Bank might be able to help with the zombie move malls.
Most importantly, it turns out that land banking has been authorized in Ohio since 1976, and that Cincinnati has had a land bank since 1996. It acquires only ~10 properties a year whereas Flint, MI and Cleveland, OH acquire around 1000. In April, former Gov. Ted Strickland signed a bill authorizing land banks in every Ohio county (previously only Cuyahoga County was authorized to land bank on a county level, and Cincinnati's was a municipal enterprise). Expanding to Hamilton County would allow Cincinnati to take advantage of the extra money that could come from taking less-damaged foreclosed properties in the outlying areas and reselling them and using the profits for upkeep and redevelopment. Apparently, though, according to this Master's thesis from the regional planning program at the University of Cincinnati, the Cincinnati Land Bank has even bigger problems to sort out first.
This probably still would not help my grandmother, as condos are not particularly valuable land banking property, and she can still pay her taxes. Still, a new and improved Hamilton County Land Bank might be able to help with the zombie move malls.
Deep Economy pt. 1
Two questions that I often get asked when I say I am interested in urban planning and regional policy are 1) what do you think about gentrification/is there a way to improve impoverished urban neighborhoods without forcing out long term residents? and 2) what hope do small rust belt or agricultural towns have for redevelopment and regeneration?
Conventional economics does not have much in the way of politically-viable answers to these questions, in part because it advocates for labor force mobility. When possible, people should leave these areas in search of a better life somewhere else. This is the view put forth, for example, by the UK think tank Policy Exchange in their 2008 report entitled Cities Unlimited, which suggested that the government's regeneration efforts should be focused moving Northern England's residents to the prosperous South-East rather than trying to buttress more impoverished Northern towns. Similarly, the gentrification of a neighborhood is often held as a good thing, although more and more research is pointing to a displacement of the poor out to the suburbs as city living once again becomes fashionable, meaning that while the neighborhood may be looking up, that change did not help its residents.
In many ways, the conventional answer is dodging the question. There is no fix for these places, so either tough it out or get out. Recently, I've been doing some reading on these questions, to see who has a better answer, preferably one that keeps the community and their geography intact.
The first book, which I read this autumn, was Deep Economy, by Bill McKibben. He advocates for a more localized economy, with as much of an emphasis on building community as on amassing wealth. His favorite analogy is that the birds More and Better have long been sharing a branch, enabling the Western world to hit both with one stone, but at some point in the last 60 years, Better changed branches. His argument(s) is complex enough for me to devote a few posts to it, mainly because I think he is on to something, but I don't think he makes a good enough case. For one, he has the privilege to live in Middlebury, VT, where it is pretty easy to live locally, and he doesn't do enough to address the challenges one might face living in, say, New Haven, CT, where there is not a single grocery store remaining.
So in short, keep an eye out for forthcoming posts looking at the questions I mentioned above from a number of different viewpoints.
Conventional economics does not have much in the way of politically-viable answers to these questions, in part because it advocates for labor force mobility. When possible, people should leave these areas in search of a better life somewhere else. This is the view put forth, for example, by the UK think tank Policy Exchange in their 2008 report entitled Cities Unlimited, which suggested that the government's regeneration efforts should be focused moving Northern England's residents to the prosperous South-East rather than trying to buttress more impoverished Northern towns. Similarly, the gentrification of a neighborhood is often held as a good thing, although more and more research is pointing to a displacement of the poor out to the suburbs as city living once again becomes fashionable, meaning that while the neighborhood may be looking up, that change did not help its residents.
In many ways, the conventional answer is dodging the question. There is no fix for these places, so either tough it out or get out. Recently, I've been doing some reading on these questions, to see who has a better answer, preferably one that keeps the community and their geography intact.
The first book, which I read this autumn, was Deep Economy, by Bill McKibben. He advocates for a more localized economy, with as much of an emphasis on building community as on amassing wealth. His favorite analogy is that the birds More and Better have long been sharing a branch, enabling the Western world to hit both with one stone, but at some point in the last 60 years, Better changed branches. His argument(s) is complex enough for me to devote a few posts to it, mainly because I think he is on to something, but I don't think he makes a good enough case. For one, he has the privilege to live in Middlebury, VT, where it is pretty easy to live locally, and he doesn't do enough to address the challenges one might face living in, say, New Haven, CT, where there is not a single grocery store remaining.
So in short, keep an eye out for forthcoming posts looking at the questions I mentioned above from a number of different viewpoints.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Cincinnati and Urban Economics
I'm visiting my grandmother in Cincinnati for New Years Eve and the city has been making me think hard about my urban economics class. My cousins who live here were telling me that mall after mall has closed down. They mentioned one mall in particular that could be "a zombie movie set." The Ponderosa Steakhouse had a diminished clientele, consisting, it appeared, of retirees and those most likely to suffer from structural unemployment (and me, unfortunately).
Yet Cinicinnati has a beautiful natural setting, great housing stock, and is the home to Proctor and Gamble, Great American Insurance, and a few banks. What's dying isn't the downtown, its the suburbs, and not all suburbs. Mason, OH is a fast growing satellite city with good schools and many offshoots of the big businesses. Its neighbor, Sharonville, would have gotten a rail stop had the new idiot not been elected governor. It still might, if local rail advocates can convince the city to apply for funding on its own.
I suppose it's also not entirely true to say that downtown isn't dying. It is losing population and has a school system that is up against some seriously unfriendly social dynamics. Moreover, it's suffering from clogged transportation arteries--highways and freight capacity-- and some really stupid planning decisions, like separating downtown from the river by the Fort Washington highway trench and the removal of the streetcar system. On the other hand, they are beginning to look at other cities and recognize these mistakes, and may even bring back the streetcar. So let's call downtown in critical, but not terminal, condition.
The suburbs, on the other hand, the ones fueled by the construction of the highways, populated by white flight from downtown, and based around the malls and office parks, are unlikely to recover, for a number of reasons. One, gas prices are likely to rise over time, increasing the cost of that particular kind of suburban lifestyle. Two, the decline of malls likely signals a market readjustment due to an oversupply of retail. Once a new equilibrium is reached, even if an economic resurgence restores demand, it likely won't look the same. Increasingly, newly vibrant economic districts are happening in places with higher densities and more mixed use development. Three, the population with the wherewithal to do so is relocating to the suburbs with jobs, like Sharonville and Mason, leaving the populations in other suburbs less attractive to businesses as an employee base. Four, the land use pattern in the suburbs does not lend itself to easy realignment with popular smart growth principles.
In other words, Cincinnati is undergoing many of the same changes that we were asked to discuss on our urban economics final, the one where nearly every paper got the same comment: But what happens to the suburban houses and retail?? No one could answer it.
I still don't really know. My guess is that change is sticky and the towns won't really die, unless Cincinnati's economy loses P&G and gets no one else for a century. Instead, buildings will lie vacant and for sale, as will houses, like my grandma's condo. Grass will grow over empty patches where malls were demolished (in an attempt to reduce the property value, or as projects are attempted and fail). Eventually, if the other towns continue to find economic success, in part based around their greater capacity for resilience and adaptation, they will annex or spill over into the "dead" suburbs, rebuilding and repurposing them and absorbing the populations, likely to needed larger amounts of social services than the residents of the more successful towns.
Additionally, as they lie dormant, those who hold property will see their assets depreciate significantly. It may, in places like Cincinnati that are undergoing significant demographic and landuse shifts, be prudent for the local government to purchase and hold onto the land and houses until there is a use for them. Yes, they will be taken off the tax rolls, resulting in a loss of revenue, but I would wager that in many cases, the tradeoff makes sense. I would say do that only for those who cannot afford the lost assets (the elderly, families, and small businesses, NOT national chains or mall developers). It will minimize the long-term economic impacts of the temporary dead zones, and increase the likelihood (assuming a semi-enlightened government, a risky thing to do in Cincinnati) of them eventually being planned and utilized in a way that will make them more resilient in the future, and keep the great housing stock in place.
Well, it's officially 2011 as I write this! Happy and healthy new year to everyone!
Yet Cinicinnati has a beautiful natural setting, great housing stock, and is the home to Proctor and Gamble, Great American Insurance, and a few banks. What's dying isn't the downtown, its the suburbs, and not all suburbs. Mason, OH is a fast growing satellite city with good schools and many offshoots of the big businesses. Its neighbor, Sharonville, would have gotten a rail stop had the new idiot not been elected governor. It still might, if local rail advocates can convince the city to apply for funding on its own.
I suppose it's also not entirely true to say that downtown isn't dying. It is losing population and has a school system that is up against some seriously unfriendly social dynamics. Moreover, it's suffering from clogged transportation arteries--highways and freight capacity-- and some really stupid planning decisions, like separating downtown from the river by the Fort Washington highway trench and the removal of the streetcar system. On the other hand, they are beginning to look at other cities and recognize these mistakes, and may even bring back the streetcar. So let's call downtown in critical, but not terminal, condition.
The suburbs, on the other hand, the ones fueled by the construction of the highways, populated by white flight from downtown, and based around the malls and office parks, are unlikely to recover, for a number of reasons. One, gas prices are likely to rise over time, increasing the cost of that particular kind of suburban lifestyle. Two, the decline of malls likely signals a market readjustment due to an oversupply of retail. Once a new equilibrium is reached, even if an economic resurgence restores demand, it likely won't look the same. Increasingly, newly vibrant economic districts are happening in places with higher densities and more mixed use development. Three, the population with the wherewithal to do so is relocating to the suburbs with jobs, like Sharonville and Mason, leaving the populations in other suburbs less attractive to businesses as an employee base. Four, the land use pattern in the suburbs does not lend itself to easy realignment with popular smart growth principles.
In other words, Cincinnati is undergoing many of the same changes that we were asked to discuss on our urban economics final, the one where nearly every paper got the same comment: But what happens to the suburban houses and retail?? No one could answer it.
I still don't really know. My guess is that change is sticky and the towns won't really die, unless Cincinnati's economy loses P&G and gets no one else for a century. Instead, buildings will lie vacant and for sale, as will houses, like my grandma's condo. Grass will grow over empty patches where malls were demolished (in an attempt to reduce the property value, or as projects are attempted and fail). Eventually, if the other towns continue to find economic success, in part based around their greater capacity for resilience and adaptation, they will annex or spill over into the "dead" suburbs, rebuilding and repurposing them and absorbing the populations, likely to needed larger amounts of social services than the residents of the more successful towns.
Additionally, as they lie dormant, those who hold property will see their assets depreciate significantly. It may, in places like Cincinnati that are undergoing significant demographic and landuse shifts, be prudent for the local government to purchase and hold onto the land and houses until there is a use for them. Yes, they will be taken off the tax rolls, resulting in a loss of revenue, but I would wager that in many cases, the tradeoff makes sense. I would say do that only for those who cannot afford the lost assets (the elderly, families, and small businesses, NOT national chains or mall developers). It will minimize the long-term economic impacts of the temporary dead zones, and increase the likelihood (assuming a semi-enlightened government, a risky thing to do in Cincinnati) of them eventually being planned and utilized in a way that will make them more resilient in the future, and keep the great housing stock in place.
Well, it's officially 2011 as I write this! Happy and healthy new year to everyone!
Sunday, November 14, 2010
High-speed rail
As governors-elect in Ohio and Wisconsin prepare to hand back high-speed rail money to the US Department of Transportation, it's a little disheartening to read this article about objections to a new high-speed rail line in Britain. On the other hand, I don't think that this situation is analogous to objections raised by the opposition to high-speed rail in the US, and would hope that this article isn't used in that argument (although I'm not naive enough to think it won't).
The article is about the residents of towns along a proposed high speed rail corridor between London and Birmingham. They object to having their view despoiled, to the noise and mess of construction, and other general complaints of NIMBYism which I was inclined to dismiss at first, especially given the beauty of iconic images like the Shinkansen under Mt. Fuji. However, Y pointed out that the faster the train goes, the more it disturbs those around it due to increased noise and danger in case of obstruction. In addition, the increasing numbers of towns it must pass by to maintain those speeds and the need for straighter right of ways, which reduce flexibility in route planning, create real costs attributable to increasing speeds. These problems are mentioned obliquely in the article as well and they seem like reasonable claims to me.
For one, the distance between London and Birmingham is exactly the same as the distance between Charlottesville, VA and Washington, DC, and shorter than the distance from DC to Philadelphia by 10-15 miles. The British train would cover the distance between the two cities in 49 minutes at a speed of up to 250 mph, and stop nowhere in the middle. Comparably, in Amtrak's pipe dream plan for the Northeast Corridor, only the fastest service, reaching speeds of 220 mph, would go direct from DC to Philadelphia without stopping in Baltimore. There is a difference of 19 minutes in the proposed travel time from DC to NYC between the Super Express (which stops at only the four hub stations) and the Express (which stops at 8 additional stations between DC and NYC). My guess is that, if this plan is carried further, a rigorous cost-benefit analysis will find that a fraction of those 19 minutes aren't worth losing ridership to and from Baltimore, and times will slow a little. Many will object, saying that the US should have the fastest trains out there, but this article would suggest that they are wrong. Since our highway building extravaganza of the 1950s and 60s, I would hope that US transportation planners have learned something about listening to the concerns of those who live near corridors. A 180 mile an hour train that can curve to avoid important places and stop in a couple more cities can compete just as well as a higher speed train that generates resentment and fear among its neighbors, who become avid non-consumers because of poor planning and communication. US trains should continue their reputation for being an enjoyable way to travel for those both on and off the rails, even if it means letting France hold its fastest train award.
More importantly, Britain already has the 180 mile an hour train as an option, with upgrading, and a great rail system even without an upgrade. The reason it is RIDICULOUS for Ohio and Wisconsin to give up their rail money is that that money, while incorrectly labeled high speed rail, would have permitted upgrades that would get them close to the level of service currently provided in Britain. Yes, it is a smaller step than it was sold as. Perhaps the money should have been called "Viable Rail", an attempt to make rail a good option for travelers before we run out of oil and/or space to build highways in cities and need electrified rail desperately. The highways in Cincinnati and Chicago are already clogged (they may be in other cities that turned down rail money too, but I've only been in those two so I can't say for sure), so it would strike me that they may already be at the point of really needing another choice. This is a choice that would not require the acquisition of much new right of way, just upgrades to existing infrastructure. It's not comparable to Britain's decision, which is more about being faster than France than about providing better service between Birmingham and London.
Look for a future post on why it is also ridiculous for Amtrak to propose two New York stops on even the Super Express train.
The article is about the residents of towns along a proposed high speed rail corridor between London and Birmingham. They object to having their view despoiled, to the noise and mess of construction, and other general complaints of NIMBYism which I was inclined to dismiss at first, especially given the beauty of iconic images like the Shinkansen under Mt. Fuji. However, Y pointed out that the faster the train goes, the more it disturbs those around it due to increased noise and danger in case of obstruction. In addition, the increasing numbers of towns it must pass by to maintain those speeds and the need for straighter right of ways, which reduce flexibility in route planning, create real costs attributable to increasing speeds. These problems are mentioned obliquely in the article as well and they seem like reasonable claims to me.
For one, the distance between London and Birmingham is exactly the same as the distance between Charlottesville, VA and Washington, DC, and shorter than the distance from DC to Philadelphia by 10-15 miles. The British train would cover the distance between the two cities in 49 minutes at a speed of up to 250 mph, and stop nowhere in the middle. Comparably, in Amtrak's pipe dream plan for the Northeast Corridor, only the fastest service, reaching speeds of 220 mph, would go direct from DC to Philadelphia without stopping in Baltimore. There is a difference of 19 minutes in the proposed travel time from DC to NYC between the Super Express (which stops at only the four hub stations) and the Express (which stops at 8 additional stations between DC and NYC). My guess is that, if this plan is carried further, a rigorous cost-benefit analysis will find that a fraction of those 19 minutes aren't worth losing ridership to and from Baltimore, and times will slow a little. Many will object, saying that the US should have the fastest trains out there, but this article would suggest that they are wrong. Since our highway building extravaganza of the 1950s and 60s, I would hope that US transportation planners have learned something about listening to the concerns of those who live near corridors. A 180 mile an hour train that can curve to avoid important places and stop in a couple more cities can compete just as well as a higher speed train that generates resentment and fear among its neighbors, who become avid non-consumers because of poor planning and communication. US trains should continue their reputation for being an enjoyable way to travel for those both on and off the rails, even if it means letting France hold its fastest train award.
More importantly, Britain already has the 180 mile an hour train as an option, with upgrading, and a great rail system even without an upgrade. The reason it is RIDICULOUS for Ohio and Wisconsin to give up their rail money is that that money, while incorrectly labeled high speed rail, would have permitted upgrades that would get them close to the level of service currently provided in Britain. Yes, it is a smaller step than it was sold as. Perhaps the money should have been called "Viable Rail", an attempt to make rail a good option for travelers before we run out of oil and/or space to build highways in cities and need electrified rail desperately. The highways in Cincinnati and Chicago are already clogged (they may be in other cities that turned down rail money too, but I've only been in those two so I can't say for sure), so it would strike me that they may already be at the point of really needing another choice. This is a choice that would not require the acquisition of much new right of way, just upgrades to existing infrastructure. It's not comparable to Britain's decision, which is more about being faster than France than about providing better service between Birmingham and London.
Look for a future post on why it is also ridiculous for Amtrak to propose two New York stops on even the Super Express train.
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